Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,397 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context, we started the portfolio with 520 units available to bet and 520 more in reserve, should we need them for hedging down the line. We have yet to tap into the hedging units.
ALCS
We’re hitting this pair again. The value just isn’t matched anywhere else, and our portfolio doesn’t need it to be. With the leverage we’re getting here and the probability both these teams make the playoffs (in addition to the Blue Jays, upon whom we have similarly high upside), we should be in a good place when the field is set and odds start to correct, or if odds start correcting before then. At some point, we’ll pivot again to other sources of value, but that’ll only be a concern if circumstances don’t change, and more likely than not, something will happen that changes circumstances, opening up a fresh angle for us elsewhere.
Pick: Seattle to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2000. Medium confidence.
