Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 986 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Kansas City @ St. Louis
With Paul DeJong returning yesterday, the Cardinals are back around full strength. Their bullpen may be a little sparse today, considering John Gant and Andrew Miller have thrown on back-to-back days, which could be a complication with Jack Flaherty on a limited pitch count. Still, there’s enough cushion here to make the Cardinals moneyline one of the more assured plays of the week.
Pick: St. Louis to win -175. Medium confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona
Ryan Castellani has, thus far, held his own for the Rockies, managing a 3.77 ERA over three starts. This is great for Castellani, and for Colorado, but don’t expect it to last. While his FIP’s outpaced expectations, it’s still 5.37, and even with a humidor, Chase Field graded out as a slightly hitter-friendly environment over 2018 and 2019.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105). Low confidence.
