Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,510 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just futures today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NLCS
The Reds are now past 60% likely to make the playoffs, holding a one-game lead over the Padres in the wild card race and facing the second-easiest schedule in baseball the rest of the way. They’re a long shot to make noise in October, but the nature of the playoff setup is that if they make it, they’ll likely get the Dodgers in a smaller sample size than seven games, and behind the Dodgers it’s a fairly open race in the National League. They’re worth having in the portfolio, and these odds give them narrowly positive value.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +2200. Low confidence.
World Series
This is a big “if they make it” bet. If the Red Sox can get to October, they figure to be rather formidable, with Nathan Eovaldi boasting a 2.90 FIP, Eduardo Rodriguez at 3.31, and Chris Sale one of the best pitchers in baseball if healthy. The health thing is key, and the offense and bullpen each have their share of issues, but against every possible AL opponent, the Red Sox would have the starting pitching advantage over a series. It’s just about getting there, and at the moment, they’re tied for that final spot with an easier remaining schedule than the A’s or anyone else in the AL East.
Pick: Boston to win +2500. Low confidence.
