Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,392 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context on the unit size: We started the season with 520 units ready to bet on MLB futures and another 520 in reserve.
NLCS
The value’s narrow here, but we’ve got a big liability on Los Angeles, and having value on at least one of the favorites is helpful for hedging scenarios (if you have equal upside on one LCS opponent as you do downside on the other, you can hedge out if odds get to even). With so much upside on Atlanta in the World Series market, we’re unconcerned about scenarios in which the Mets lose the East.
Pick: New York to win +260. Medium confidence.
ALCS
This is more a straight value play than the last, but we do like what it does for our portfolio, specifically in this pennant market. Our Astros upside is pretty narrow—we put a lot on them early in the year, but then value dried up as we diversified elsewhere. Our value on the AL Central teams is small, and it’s negative on one of the three (the Twins). We have medium downside on the Yankees. With the Wild Card teams looking moderately likely to be Seattle, Toronto, and Tampa Bay, we’d like to have big upside on all three to outweigh our poorer outlook on the favorites. This helps get the Mariners a little closer to the Rays’ and Jays’ respective levels.
Pick: Seattle to win +1400. Medium confidence.
