Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 970 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
More futures markets are opening up as we possibly approach a day free of coronavirus-canceled games. For those odds, as usual, we’ll be using Bovada’s odds rather than the Vegas consensus, because with MLB futures, no one keeps up a great Vegas consensus online. First, though…
Game 1: St. Louis @ Chicago (NL)
Don’t underestimate Kwang-Hyun Kim, don’t overestimate the Cubs’ offense, and properly estimate that if the Cubs do win, they’ll likely only bat six times.
Pick: St. Louis +1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
Boston @ New York (AL)
The question here is how messed up the collective Red Sox psyche is. That isn’t something we give a numeric value, but if we did, it’d have to be pretty significant to make this a bad play. Of course, it could be that significant—we just don’t know—but with at least a competent starting pitcher and a few of the Yankees’ bullpen pieces probably unavailable, this is about as good a chance at a win as they’ll get this year in the Bronx.
Pick: Boston +1.5 (-135). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Chicago (AL)
The market continues to love the White Sox. That love has yet to be proven justified.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
Futures
A lot of plays here with division championship markets reopening and the picture having shook itself up a good bit over the weekend. All of these are good plays, but it bears noting that some good plays were ignored because they’re already adequately covered in the portfolio.
Highlights include the Phillies, whose starting pitching is looking pretty solid these days, the Astros, who’ve surged back into the thick of things in the AL; and the Brewers, who had a very necessary good weekend.
Los Angeles to win NL West -400. Medium confidence.
Atlanta to win NL East +110. Low confidence.
Philadelphia to win NL East +450. Low confidence.
Philadelphia to win NLCS +1800. Low confidence.
Milwaukee to win NLCS +2000. Low confidence.
Arizona to win NLCS +3500. Low confidence.
Houston to win ALCS +800. Low confidence.
Houston to win World Series +1500. Low confidence.
Cincinnati to win World Series +3500. Low confidence.
Milwaukee to win World Series +4000. Low confidence.
