Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
AL East
The narrative that the Yankees have issues was given a lot of airtime last night, and justifiably so, given how they’ve slumped. It’s probably a little overblown, but at the same time—the door’s open. And at these odds, while this is a ludicrous longshot, it makes sense to take a flier on the Rays. Especially since we have the flexibility from our other picks to do so.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +25000. Medium confidence.
World Series
It’s the same story here. This is a ridiculous longshot, but simultaneously, the Red Sox are within five games of playoff position with more than a quarter of the season to go, and on paper, even with some light deadline selling, they’re better than three of the four teams they’d have to pass. Add in a light schedule the rest of the way, and they’re far from out of the playoff chase. Should they pull it off, this’ll be a future we’ll be glad to have in our pocket.
Pick: Boston to win +25000. Medium confidence.
