Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,079 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and futures today. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 75–54–4, we’re up 16.52 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 78.16 units, or 7.5%.
Baltimore @ San Diego
Grayson Rodriguez has been better since returning from the minors, but that’s been over too small a sample to be fully convinced he’s turned things around and we should disregard his earlier results. If we accept him without banking on regression in either direction, this points towards value on the Padres, especially with a fairly steady force in Yu Darvish on the mound.
Pick: San Diego to win –138. Low confidence. (Rodriguez and Darvish must start.)
ALCS
We’re going to hold off on betting on the Rays for the time being while we await clarity on the Wander Franco situation (obviously, higher priorities there than our bets). There’s value on the Astros even without considering that angle, though, as they continue to hang close to the Rangers, hold the better roster on paper, and face the easier schedule the rest of the way. It would not be surprising if these guys won the West, and if through that they won the pennant.
Pick: Houston to win +325. Medium confidence.
NLCS
On the NL side, our semi-regular bet on Atlanta. They were dipping close to an unprofitable scenario for our portfolio, they’re still flashing positive value, we’ll take them to keep them a good outcome.
The Dodgers’ surge has markets shifting a bit, and while there’s concern on our side that Los Angeles poses a greater threat than before to Atlanta, there’s also an angle where Los Angeles creates more value on Atlanta through others scrambling to cover that base. We have a lot of liability on the Dodgers, but we’re confident in our ability to balance that out with our leverage elsewhere (especially if the Reds end up missing these playoffs, a development which would most likely leave us with five profitable scenarios among the six NL teams playing into October).
Pick: Atlanta to win +150. Medium confidence.
