Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,654 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 122–107–3 so far this year, down 9.67 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started on Thursday. So far, that effort is 8–4, up an even 3.00 units. That is a very small sample.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
New York (AL) @ Chicago (AL)
Heat Index, the first of our three new approaches, features three main candidates in tonight’s games. For as hot as the Diamondbacks and Padres are, though, and for as cold as the Rockies and Pirates are, the coldness of the White Sox wins out. Not to discredit the Yankees. Using our formula (average of wRC+ and FIP–), the Yankees are the third-hottest team in the game.
Is it worth it to bet at these odds? This is part of our experiment. We know the Heat Index approach is going to lead us into some huge favorites. Is there still value? We’re monitoring.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –333. Low confidence. (Gil and Bush must start.)
Los Angeles @ Milwaukee
The smallest favorite today isn’t even a favorite at some books. On the aggregate, though, the Dodgers have the edge over the Brewers in the markets. The idea with this approach is to trust the markets to know which way to lean and doubt their willingness to lean far enough.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –105. Low confidence. (Kershaw and Peralta must start.)
Texas @ Boston
Nobody fits our criteria in this third bucket, which is for underdogs who flash value using our approach from the first half of 2023 and early 2024. As was the case with that approach, though, we do measure proximity to fitting the bill, and in that respect, the Rangers are the team the process spits out. Their bullpen fatigue isn’t severely worse than that of their hosts, and if it does rain at Fenway, it looks like it’ll be a quick shower right before first pitch, not something which should dramatically affect the starting pitchers.
Pick: Texas to win +113. Low confidence. (Mahle and Bello must start.)
NLCS
There’s value on the Cubs in futures markets, and that is an unusual sight. It’s the first time we’ve seen NLCS or World Series value on these guys all year. They’re still a long shot—hence the 150-to-1 odds just to win the pennant—but with their Wild Card gap down to three games and two nice weeks of schedule following this Guardians series, the value’s there.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +15000. Medium confidence.
World Series
Here’s part two. We’d still benefit more from the Diamondbacks or Padres going all the way, but this gives us another high-upside option for that 6-seed. In that department, the Cubs join the Mets and the Cardinals.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +30000. Medium confidence.
