Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 429 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Texas @ Toronto
Tim Mayza, of the Blue Jays, is nothing too special. Over this season and parts of the two prior, he’s compiled a 4.38 career ERA for the Blue Jays, pitching strictly out of the bullpen. Throwing primarily sinkers and sliders, he isn’t exactly overpowering. Yet at 27, and with a career opponent wOBA against lefties of .261 (context: the lowest wOBA for a qualified hitter this year is .274), the Blue Jays decided to keep him at the trade deadline, rather than dealing him away as they did Joe Biagini and Daniel Hudson.
That might turn out to be a wise move. With a career FIP of 3.69, and the aforementioned success against left-handers, Mayza could be a valuable piece in a retooled Blue Jays bullpen when their window for contention opens.
It’s up for debate when that window will open, but it’s worth noting that Toronto’s played .500 baseball since the All-Star break, with two-thirds of those games coming against likely playoff teams and the Red Sox. Their three unrestricted free agents this offseason have combined to produce 0.1 fWAR in 2019, and while the Guerrero/Biggio/Bichette trio has depleted the farm system by exiting it, newly ordained top prospect Nate Pearson could debut next year and provide a jolt to an otherwise questionable rotation.
The Blue Jays also benefit, on paper, from the industry-wide shift away from reliance on traditional starting pitching. While their strengths in 2020 figure to center around the offense, steps forward from a few key pitchers along with some mild aggression in free agency could result in Toronto cobbling together a serviceable pitching staff.
Of which Tim Mayza could be a significant part.
Pick: Under 11 (-115). Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ Anaheim
Mitch Keller is coming back up from AAA to start for the Pirates tonight in Anaheim. Being one of the best prospects in the Pittsburgh system (he started the 2018 Futures Game), it was disappointing when he gave up twelve earned runs over just seven innings in his first two MLB starts, back in May and June. While he put together a better outing the next time out, it would be his last in the majors for nearly two months.
Now, Keller’s back, and looking more closely at those starts, Pittsburgh has reason to be optimistic.
While Keller did walk an uncomfortably high 9.8% of hitters, he limited his opponents to just one home run, with the real problem being a .513 BABIP and 43.0% LOB rate that can’t possibly hold up over time. His FIP over the twelve innings was 3.30, much closer to the 3.59 he’s posted for Indianapolis, and very good for a major league starting pitcher.
Keller isn’t the kind of rookie Stephen Strasburg was. But he’s still one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. That’s more meaningful than twelve unlucky innings.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win (+135). Low confidence.
