Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 955 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
I’ve been doing futures picks on Wednesday, and I’ll still come back to them later this week, but with LCS markets opening back up, I wanted to grab two plays quickly in case they close again. As I’ve been doing with MLB futures this year, I used Bovada’s odds because the Vegas consensus is sometimes hard to find.
But first, three picks for tonight:
Tampa Bay @ Boston
The wind’s blowing out at Fenway tonight, so let’s talk about Mitch Moreland.
Moreland is not in Boston’s starting lineup. This is fair. Over his career, his wRC+ against left-handed pitchers is only 77, compared to a respectable 107 against righties.
Ryan Yarbrough isn’t going to pitch a complete game, though (at least, I hope he isn’t going to do that). The best arms in the Tampa Bay bullpen are right arms. And through these first few weeks, among hitters with 30 or more plate appearances, no one’s done more per PA than Moreland, whose 251 wRC+ is tops in the MLB, and whose six home runs lead everyone but guys named Tatís, Judge, and Castellanos. Not bad company.
Pick: Boston +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Dodger Stadium is not the best run-scoring environment. In fact, it’s one of the worst. This makes Cody Bellinger and similar Dodgers’ run-producers all the more impressive. It also occasionally leads to advantageous run lines.
Pick: San Diego +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
LCS Futures
On the one hand, the Royals are the Royals and the year is 2020. On the other, the year is 2020 and each game counts for a lot. As it stands, the Royals are a game and a half back of a playoff spot nearly halfway through August. Even in a short season, that counts for something, because while it shouldn’t be considered reflective of the quality of the team, it means their path to making the World Series is much more likely than 250-to-1.
Also, grabbing another unit on the Padres, who continue to be undervalued, perhaps due to the Rockies’ running interference? Hard to say.
Pick: Kansas City to win ALCS at 250-to-1. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win NLCS at 16-to-1. Low confidence.
