Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,202 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures. We placed our last college basketball plays yesterday.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 4–7 so far, down 3.70 units. It’s been a bad start, but we did win yesterday.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
Aaron Ashby returns to the majors today after shoulder surgery last April kept him out for almost the whole season. His lone minor league start this year went fine. He might be a little undervalued, given how good a prospect he was.
Graham Ashcraft is probably overvalued. He was one of those Reds starters who outperformed his FIP last year. He was solid, and he was also solid in 2022, but he was never a great prospect and there isn’t a ton of reason to believe he’s more than just a serviceable guy. The Reds got a little too big a reputation last season. This is part of the return to earth.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –104. Low confidence. (Ashby and Ashcraft must start.)
NL West
18-to-1 is a big number for a team currently projected to finish 83–79. Yes, it’s the NL West, but the Padres are a little down and the Diamondbacks haven’t taken the huge step forward that their postseason results imply. With that lurking possibility of a Shohei Ohtani suspension, small though it may be, we have no discomfort taking little shots like this one.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1800. Medium confidence.
AL Central
Not a great start for the Twins, but only a 3–4 start, and that’s where the opportunity lies. They’re still the best team on paper in this division. (We do have something on the Guardians, too. That’s how all this works. It’s a portfolio.)
Pick: Minnesota to win +155. Medium confidence.
