Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy who knows numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 156 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
College basketball season ends tonight, while (I believe) the final baseball home openers occupy the afternoon. A sports equinox, if you will.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this.
- You should buy a KenPom subscription.
- ESPN’s BPI is worth referencing.
- Fangraphs is a treasure.
MLB: Tampa Bay @ Chicago (AL)
This was supposed to be an exciting year for the White Sox. They were supposed to sign Manny Machado, making their team about four wins better and thrusting them into the wild card race.
That is not how things are playing out. Fangraphs currently has the South Siders projected to win 70 games (implying Machado wouldn’t have been the difference), and their early performance, while only roughly 5% of the season, supports that projection.
Today, though, looks promising. The Rays flew in from San Francisco last night and are dealing with an early afternoon start. Carlos Rodon is on the mound for Chicago, and while he had his fair share of control issues last season, he’s a solid pitcher who gives them as good a chance as anyone on their roster of staying in this one.
Yes, the Sox have to contend with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but through a week and a half, they’ve got the ninth-best team wRC+ in the league, which is encouraging, even if it comes from a small sample.
At these odds, the expected return on investment of a White Sox bet is high for a baseball game with lineups posted.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +155. Low confidence.
MLB: New York (AL) @ Houston
Lineups aren’t posted yet for this one, so maybe keep an eye on those, but as things stand, there’s value to be had on the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka isn’t exactly at the top of anyone’s mind when discussing the best pitchers in the AL, but he has the tools necessary to get on that list, and early returns have been encouraging. Justin Verlander is on that list, and deservedly so, but even with their slew of injuries, the Yankees have enough firepower to compete. Their chances are better than Vegas implies.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +145. Low confidence.
MLB: Milwaukee @ Anaheim
If trap games exist in baseball, this is one for the Brewers, who took two out of three from the Cubs this weekend and lead the NL Central by two full games, one week into April.
If momentum exists, the Brewers are hot.
Both probably exist to some extent, with momentum more significant, but it’s worth noting that Milwaukee’s coming off a long flight, Josh Hader won’t be available tonight, and Mike Trout is even hotter than the Brewers, sporting a hilarious 315 wRC+ through ten games (wRC+ measures how a player’s offensive performance compares to the rest of the MLB, with 100 being the average, so Trout has, thus far, performed over three times better than an average player).
Yes, the rest of the Angels lineup (despite some nice contributions from Brian Goodwin and Albert Pujols so far) is bad, but the Angels should probably be a slight favorite in this one. Instead, they’re a minor underdog.
Pick: Anaheim to win -102. Low confidence.
NCAAMB: Virginia vs. Texas Tech – National Championship
The National Championship is here, and while it might not include the two best teams, I’d trust KenPom and argue it includes the best team and the fifth-best team. That fifth-best team has played ferociously since losing to West Virginia in their Big 12 Tournament opener, with none of the games particularly close. That same team closed out regular season play with nine straight victories against arguably the best conference in college basketball. So while Texas Tech is something of a novelty around this stage, they’re no statistical quirk, and it’s not surprising that they’ve beaten half of their fellow top-six teams over the last eleven days.
Virginia, though, is the best team in the country. Even though they lost twice to Duke, they’re the best team in the country, and even if they do lose tonight, they’re the best team in the country. While their defense isn’t as good as Texas Tech’s, it’s a top-five defense, and their offense is even better, contrary to appearances.
Yes, Texas Tech has a great chance to win this game. Jarrett Culver might be the nation’s best player, and his supporting cast is loaded with talent.
But Virginia is a better team. Not hugely better. But better enough.
Pick: Virginia -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
