Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,338 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
College basketball first, then baseball:
Gonzaga vs. Baylor
The moneyline on Gonzaga (-200) isn’t too bad of value in its own right. I wouldn’t take it alone, but if you’re looking to take one side or the other, that’d be the one I’d take. The over’s the best play, but this figures to be a tempo battle: Baylor’s gonna roll out that 1-2-2 press and try to slow down Gonzaga, Gonzaga’s gonna try to run the floor on every Baylor miss. If there’s even the slightest correlation between an up-tempo game and a Gonzaga win, this parlay’s valuable, so this is a bet that at least that slight correlation’s there.
Pick: Parlay — Gonzaga to win, over 159.5 (+186). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Texas
How much is George Springer worth? Over five plate appearances’ worth of baseball, replacing Springer with Randal Grichuk—as the Blue Jays have been doing—lowers Toronto’s projected fWAR by roughly 0.01 or 0.02. To oversimplify, this translates to a one or two percentage point decrease in their win probability.
Against today’s moneyline, that’s not enough to scare us off.
Pick: Toronto to win -150. Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
The Royals crushed the ball this weekend, and while that shouldn’t last, their position players are, for what it’s worth, better than their pitchers. In the back of each team’s rotation, with relatively neutral wind, at least one offense appears undervalued here.
Pick: Over 9 (-105). Low confidence.
