Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,809 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One pick for the national championship, two MLB futures, and one MLB play for today. For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
UConn vs. San Diego State
UConn is significantly better than San Diego State, but bettors know that, and the market has swung a couple points higher from the KenPom line. That leaves us playing the total, and here’s where our thoughts land:
San Diego State could exploit UConn’s propensity to turn the ball over. They’re deep, they know that’s the weakness, they should attack and probably press UConn for forty minutes. UConn, though, should make life hell for SDSU shooters, and should be expected to take away the paint, just like they did against Miami. I wasn’t sure people would realize how well all four teams shot on Saturday, even in the dome, but this number is close to the KenPom total, which means it’s high for a dome game. All of that, taken together, points towards the under as the move.
Pick: Under 132.5 (-110). Low confidence.
AL East
The Red Sox are undervalued again, which sometimes works out (2021) and sometimes does not (2022). Something we’re seeing across markets is continued reactions to Opening Day but lesser reactions to Saturday and yesterday’s games. The Red Sox won that series. That isn’t the biggest deal in the world, but the Orioles shouldn’t be rising from it.
Pick: Boston to win +1800. Medium confidence.
NL West
Out west, markets haven’t seemed to realize that the Dodgers are taking a step back this year. They aren’t not trying to make the playoffs, but this is clearly a reset, and the result is that the NL West is a little bit more open. The Padres are good. The Giants are tough. But at this price, and with all that youth? The upside is there for the Diamondbacks.
Pick: Arizona to win +4000. Medium confidence.
New York (NL) @ Milwaukee
Carlos Carrasco had a good year last year, and his FIP points towards positive regression. Freddy Peralta is the better pitcher, though, and the lineup gap isn’t big enough to make the Mets a favorite in Milwaukee’s home opener.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -112. Low confidence. (Carrasco and Peralta must start)
