Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,804 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, as we rise to 56 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or, if necessary, September hedging).
AL Central
We’ve been busy in the AL Central, and a consequence of how busy we’ve been is that the 5-to-1 bet we placed on the Twins a few weeks ago would yield only a small profit. So, with the odds the same and the probability of a Minnesota division title higher, we’re doubling up. As it stands, we now have twelve units down on the Central. Should the Tigers win, we lose all twelve. Should the White Sox win, we lose six. Should the Twins win, we make a twelve-unit profit. Should the Royals or Guardians win, we make an 18-unit profit. We’d like to raise that White Sox number (we aren’t seriously concerned about the Tigers at the moment), but these odds are great and we don’t think they’ll be around for long, so we’re jumping on them while they’re here, and hoping the Twins only surge from this point forward.
Pick: Minnesota to win +500. Medium confidence.
World Series
These odds might last longer, but there’s still value on the Yankees. The market doesn’t trust this team, but they’re a contender in their own division, they’re a virtual lock to make the playoffs in some fashion, and they’re currently tied for the best record in the American League heading into six games against the Orioles and Royals. They’re one of the best value plays available where the odds currently stand.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1200. Medium confidence.
