Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,113 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball, in futures markets and on a moneyline. No college basketball today as we lick our wounds from Duke’s loss.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 3–1 so far, up 1.29 units.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We’re beginning this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Pittsburgh @ Washington
Marco Gonzales isn’t a bad bounce-back candidate, but MacKenzie Gore should still be on the upswing in his career. He should still be developing. Whether he breaks out this year or not, the Nationals are the likelier team to win this one, especially with the Pirates losing more value from their bullpen fatigue than the Nats are losing from their own.
Pick: Washington to win –105. Low confidence. (Gonzales and Gore must start.)
NL Central
The Brewers aren’t that bad, the Reds and Cubs aren’t that good. Good first weekend for Milwaukee, too. Sometimes markets are too slow to react to how valuable a win is.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +600. Medium confidence.
NL West
It’s a similar story here, and this is with the assumption that Shohei Ohtani will be just as productive as he’s statistically projected to be. There are reasons to be more bearish about him.
Pick: Arizona to win +950. Medium confidence.
