Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,362 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
San Francisco @ Philadelphia
Kevin Gausman’s at it again, entering today riding two quality starts and a six-inning no-decision in a high-scoring one in Cincinnati. Against a middling Phillies lineup, he makes the Giants a bigger-than-this-line favorite even if Buster Posey’s sidelined.
Pick: San Francisco to win -110. Low confidence.
Texas @ Anaheim
Kohei Arihara has a low FIP (3.36) and a high opponent xwOBA (.406). He’s allowed plenty of hard contact (45.8% of balls in play against him have been hit hard, and he yields balls in play at one of the highest rates in the league), but he’s also got one of the lowest opponent launch angles in baseball so far.
Arihara’s a big unknown, but assigning the 28-year-old a 4.67 projected FIP (taken from FanGraphs’ depth charts) makes this line favorable to Texas tonight, even without considering Anthony Rendon’s absence.
Pick: Texas to win +190. Low confidence.
