Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,825 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have four markets today, but we’ll be adding the fourth later, as we’re a little behind on getting our NHL futures materials together. Check back this afternoon sometime for either that or a note that we’re pushing it to tomorrow.
(Update! We’re doing the NHL future. Context on it below, and then the play for today is at the very bottom.)
The three where we do have our act together are our MLB futures, our MLB daily pick, and our NBA futures. Here’s the context on those.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 12–6, we’re up 5.05 units, we’re up 28% (the average line on our winners has been -109). That 28% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice few weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We’re beginning the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
NL Central
We’ve loudly doubted the Cubs this year, and we’ve given them credit for opening up value on other NL Central teams. Today, though, there’s opportunity on them, and we’ll happily take it.
What seems to have happened here is twofold: First, there was a big correction today in Cubs odds in one of the books we use for the odds for these posts. It was a sizable pivot. Second, the Cubs have started the season well. They’re two games above .500, and they’ve gotten through their trip to Dodger Stadium, which is no small deal. To be clear, things aren’t rosy in Wrigleyville: The Cubs are still expected to finish below .500 on the season, and this is a longshot bet. Yet, with the Cardinals struggling and the season now ten percent over for some teams, there’s opportunity here, and again: We’ll happily take it.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +1100. Medium confidence.
World Series
I continue to be surprised that the Marlins split between regular season markets and postseason markets isn’t working the other way, but whether the markets believe in this rotation or not, we like these odds enough to take them. This is so unlikely that it could be called a little bit of a stretch, and maybe it is, but that’s the beauty of having a portfolio ultimately built of 300 individual bets or so. You have the flexibility to include things like this. If the Marlins start to pick up steam, we’ll have leverage if nothing else.
Pick: Miami to win +12500. Medium confidence.
Toronto @ Houston
With all due respect to and fear of Kevin Gausman, he’s probably a little overvalued. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, but his ERA is misleading so far, and while the Astros haven’t looked great in the early going, theirs is still a tough lineup for any starter to navigate. Cristian Javier’s been solid, the Houston bullpen is fresh, the game’s down in Texas. We like the Astros as an underdog.
Pick: Houston to win +105. Low confidence. (Gausman and Javier must start.)
First Round: Sacramento vs. Golden State
Saturday night was a lot of fun, but it’s still hard to see the Kings winning this series, and that’s a wild thing to say. They have a one-game lead, they have home court advantage, they had the better regular season, and we think they’ll lose this. The market even agrees—it’s just a matter of degree. This is low reward, but it’s also low risk, and we have enough high reward out there that we don’t mind putting a favorite into the mix.
Pick: Golden State to win -145. Low confidence.
NHL future may be coming this afternoon. Check back for an update.
Update! Here’s the NHL future:
First Round: Edmonton vs. Los Angeles
We have good news and bad news.
The good news is that Gelo (which we’ll publish in detail tomorrow—apologies, but it’s gotten a little late today and somebody’s taxes aren’t finished yet) is very close to the betting markets with its odds.
The bad news is that there isn’t a lot of value out there.
We’re only seeing a 6% eROI on this play, and it’s one of the best options out there right now. We’ll take it, because we do believe that even small edges can pay off in futures markets, but we seem to have created a model that’s arriving at the same conclusion as a lot of bettors. Is that a good thing? I think so—most betting markets are pretty efficient, at least in the short term—but I do wish we were seeing some big opportunities. We may be white-knuckling these next two months on the hockey side.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +225. Low confidence.
