Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,352 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Trevor Cahill isn’t someone all that likely to go out and dominate, but he’s shown flashes of strength over his swingman career. His first start was a bad one, but don’t write him off yet, like the market seems to be doing.
Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Toronto
I don’t know a lot about the park factor in Dunedin, but judging by the total on this game, it’s nothing outlandish in either direction. Gerrit Cole should dominate, but there are enough scenarios in which he doesn’t or in which the Jays keep it close anyway to make this a good play. Basically, the market’s probably overweighting Robbie Ray’s 2020.
Pick: Toronto +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
