Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,788 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Our MLB futures portfolio effort continues, and if you’re new to this, what we’re doing is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have our strongest history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020.
AL Central
This admittedly doesn’t work great with the smell test, but on closer look, the value becomes evident. Bobby Witt Jr. is a clear Rookie of the Year candidate, if not the American League favorite. Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi, and Adalberto Mondesi are all either 26 or 27 years old, with plenty of potential in their game. Even Salvador Perez is just 32, hardly an age of clear decline, and while the rotation is lacking, there are plenty of options, while Scott Barlow is good enough to make the bullpen interesting at the very least. The White Sox are the division favorites. This is true even while we bet against them (we were in on the Twins last week, and the Guardians were our third choice today). They just aren’t as big of favorites as the market seems to believe, and the Tigers are likely not here just yet. Value is here to be taken.
Pick: Kansas City to win +1400. Medium confidence.
World Series
As was the case last year, the market is sleeping on the Red Sox. This is fair, to an extent: The Red Sox are worse on paper than the Blue Jays and Yankees, and the Rays have a recent habit of outperforming their on-paper selves. It’s only fair to an extent, though. The Red Sox are clearly better than the second-best teams in the West and the Central, giving them a more-than-solid playoff path even if the Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees all turn out to be juggernauts. Once there, 25-to-1 should feel pretty good.
Pick: Boston to win +2500. Medium confidence.
