Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,817 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got two MLB futures and one MLB pick. For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets this year, the sample is small, but things are going well. We’re 8–3, we’re up 4.55 units, we’re up 41% (the average line on our winners has been -106). That 41% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice week and a half.
Kansas City @ Texas
Zack Greinke’s been giving up some hard contact, but he hardly walks anybody, and that helps him get away with it. Also of importance: This is a small sample, but Andrew Heaney had a terrible time against the Orioles in his first start of the year. Two home runs, two walks, only two strikeouts in nearly two full trips through the order. It’s hard to have an xERA in the double digits, and his from that outing was 10.24. Again, small sample, but something to keep an eye on. These are long odds, but we’ve put ourselves in a position to take shots like these. We’re going to play them.
Pick: Kansas City to win +154. Low confidence.
World Series
The Twins are in a great position to add value. They’re in what’s likely to end up a two-team race for their division, and thanks to the MLB playoff format, the winner of that race will get to play the Wild Card Series at home against the worst wild card team by record. It’s a prime position, and they also have the talent to do something with it.
The Giants are in a tougher spot, but the Giants are mispriced. As we’ve been saying a lot, habitual Dodgers greatness has markets out of whack in the NL West, meaning the implied playoff probability for the Giants is off. That’s showing up loudest in the World Series market. Today, anyway. At this level of probability, things waffle quickly.
Pick: Minnesota to win +3300. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win +6600. Medium confidence.
