The Major League Baseball season begins tomorrow with a pair of showcase games over in Tokyo between the Dodgers and the Cubs. We won’t start our MLB futures for the year just yet, but we will have a pick for each of those games, and we’ll be publishing that the day prior, like we’re doing here. There’s no sense in trying to beat the clock on a 5 AM start.
We’re going to do some March Madness futures as well, for both the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. We’ll do one a day, and there’ll be ten units on each. That portfolio, then, is 220 units large.
Los Angeles vs. Chicago (NL)
PECOTA raised some eyebrows a couple months ago when it projected the Cubs to win more than 90 games. Having disappointed last year before completing a very medium offseason, the instinct was that the Cubs would be mediocre. PECOTA likes the youth.
FanGraphs only has the Cubs winning 84 games, and yet it still indicates there’s value at this price. I’m not sure if it’s accounting for Nico Hoerner’s absence, but if it isn’t, then it definitely isn’t accounting for Mookie Betts’s absence. That works in the Cubs’ favor.
If the dynamics are the same for Wednesday’s game, we’ll be on the Cubs again tomorrow. That means we only need to win one to get out of the week ahead.
Pick: Chicago to win (+138). 15.00 units to win 20.70.
NCAA Tournament
We looked for NIT value and found none, although not every book has NIT odds up just yet. I don’t know if the ones we checked were using our model or just built a similar model (this isn’t shade—ours is simply kenpom with a tiny twist), but we didn’t see a single team our model viewed as a positive-value play. So, it’s off to the NCAA Tournament, where much like yesterday, we think people are sleeping on Tennessee.
I’m wary of the SEC being overrated because their teams came together so strong so early in the year, but even a two-point overrating would leave the Vols a title contender. Our simulations indicate they’re the highest-value team among those with at least a one percent chance to win the title. As an added bonus? They’re healthy. We’ll start with this and see what the rest of the first week brings. Hopefully we see something advantageous on the NIT front tomorrow.
Pick: Tennessee to win (22-to-1). 10.00 units to pay 220.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –138.35 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 145 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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