Last night’s game was very weird, but we ended up with a split, which we’ll happily take these days. More in the ACC:
Virginia @ Miami
On Saturday, our grand plan failed. We were going to bet against Miami until they were a triple-digit underdog, winning every time. They covered against Cal. We licked our wounds. We aren’t moving on.
We still don’t see this as a top-250 basketball team. We aren’t sure they’re top-300. They were in freefall. One respectable night seems more likely to be a fluke than a stabilization. Give us Virginia, who’s terrible but has been about the same degree of terrible since November.
Pick: Virginia +1 (–109). 10.00 units to win 9.17.
Pick: Over 135.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –108.24 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –9% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 45 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.