No dice on even salvaging the split last night. We had it for a moment, but John Blackwell got us at the end there.
That’s why our college basketball unit is small.
Miami @ Stanford
Since Jim Larrañaga retired, Miami is 0–6 against the spread and has only been competitive in one game. This game is tipping off at 11:00 PM Eastern Time in an arena that’s usually only 50% or 60% full. This line is only half a point past where kenpom has it.
Kenpom should at some point catch up to this team which has clearly followed its coach’s lead and quit. At the moment, it doesn’t have them as the worst team in the ACC yet, and it still has the Canes ranked more than 100 places better than Louisville was ranked at the end of 2023. This is 2023 Louisville-type stuff.
(This all said: Bad track record on college basketball. Also, the under is something we bet when we bet a favorite. Our reasoning is dumb, but if you want to check our dumb reasoning, you can look at the last couple days’ bets.)
Pick: Stanford –10.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Under 151 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –40.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 29 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.