We got the little college football win last night. More of that today, plus the baseball side, where the fun’s about to really start. Let’s get to it.
ALDS: Seattle vs. Detroit
Evidently the market saw this similarly to us, as the odds have shortened fairly dramatically on the Tigers. There’s still enough value here to put another couple units down.
Pick: Detroit to win +150. 2.00 units to win 3.00.
NLDS: Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Elsewhere, the Cubs are probably valuable at this price. On paper, they’re a little better than the Brewers. Home-field advantage is important, but not important enough to make this a bad price.
We do have a lot on the Brewers—they’re our portfolio’s favorite NL option—so there’s an implicit hedge here just as there is with the Tigers one. But the prices are good enough to take.
Pick: Chicago to win +110. 2.00 units to win 2.20.
Game 1: Toronto vs. New York (AL)
We might be getting too cute with this, but we had a hard time finding a valuable moneyline. Our theory here goes that if it goes badly for the Yankee bullpen, it’ll go really badly. They might hold up, but if they melt down we expect it to be dramatic. So while most run lines are properly priced compared to their moneylines, we think this one might be underrating the chance of a multi-run Toronto win.
Pick: Toronto –1.5 (+175). 1.56 units to win 2.73.
Kentucky at Georgia
Movelor had one of its most accurate weeks in history last week, so while we don’t want to overdo it, we’re going to up our unit to a 3% eROI on the Kelly criterion (and bump that to 5% with Texas and Miami). Georgia hasn’t shown many signs that they aren’t who we thought they were. Kentucky’s underperformed if anything. Maybe Mark Stoops mucks it up, but that’s a narrative that’s equally believable to Georgia coming out with something to prove.
Pick: Georgia –19.5 (–110). 3.61 units to win 3.28.
Wisconsin at Michigan
There just aren’t a lot of signs that things are going to be ok for Wisconsin. Would love it if they were, but not seeing any indications of that coming to pass.
Pick: Michigan –17 (–115). 3.77 units to win 3.28.
Texas at Florida
Two things can be true: Florida can be resilient under Billy Napier without being a top-ten team.
Two things can be true: Texas can be a great football team even with a questionable offense.
(We think the offense is going to be a lot better after figuring some things out against Sam Houston and getting a week off to recalibrate.)
Pick: Texas –4.5 (–115). 6.29 units to win 5.47.
Virginia at Louisville
Virginia did lose to NC State. We know Alabama’s inconsistent, which makes Virginia’s FSU win still good but not a landmark. Louisville is probably better than these guys, and measurably.
Pick: Louisville –6.5 (–113). 3.71 units to win 3.28.
Minnesota at Ohio State
Maybe Minnesota figures it out as the year goes on, but it hasn’t looked good so far. It’s also not like Ohio State had to fly back on a red eye. They got a good kickoff time in Seattle last week.
Pick: Ohio State –23.5 (–110). 3.61 units to win 3.28.
Miami at Florida State
Last week, I was baffled by the Alabama/Georgia line. It was right; I was wrong. This week, I’m baffled by this one. Yes, FSU’s better than preseason expectations had them. But are they that much better? And isn’t Miami also a lot better? We do expect Miami to lose focus and start doing dumb things as the season goes on, but not this early.
Pick: Miami –4 (–110). 6.02 units to win 5.47.
Kansas at UCF
I love watching Jalon Daniels too, but in the majority of games, I’m not sure Kansas is better than UCF.
Pick: UCF +5 (–122). 4.00 units to win 3.28.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –423.58 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 811 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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