Well, the MLB unders was not a winning idea. Apologies to any who accompanied us on that detour.
Thankfully, we’ve got two moneyline wins in a row now, and we’ve been strong lately in motorsports, where we’re hoping to go two-for-three today.
Philadelphia at St. Louis
It’s a Sunday, so we’re picking a Saturday loser, and today we’re high on Matthew Liberatore. His ERA (5.84) isn’t impressive, but he’s yet to walk a batter this season and he’s lasted six or more innings in both his starts. We aren’t expecting another quality start from Liberatore today, and the Cardinals are a deserving underdog. But we think Liberatore’s undervalued, especially against a dominant Zack Wheeler (who is dominant, to be clear). In short, we like this price. Which is what matters.
Pick: St. Louis to win +162. 15.00 units to win 24.30. Wheeler and Liberatore must start.
Bahrain Grand Prix
In F1, we do like Oscar Piastri to win today, but –260 doesn’t offer much of a reward, and it requires a win probability better than 70% to present positive expected value. Instead, we’re going with Charles Leclerc to reach the podium. He qualified third, starts second, and is easy to overlook. He holds his own more often than not.
Pick: Charles Leclerc to finish Top 3 +100. 2.00 units to win 2.00.
Food City 500
There’s understandable attention on Denny Hamlin, who’s won two straight races heading into Bristol. His teammate’s finished in the top three in both of those, though, and had a dominant stretch of his own earlier this season. Bell’s success hasn’t been as correlated with short tracks, but he’s still been good on them, and he’ll have a similar setup to Hamlin.
Chase Elliott’s not a pushover—he finished second here last fall, and Hendrick Motorsports has shown its own short track strength—but we like Bell at odds this close to 50/50.
Pick: Christopher Bell to beat Chase Elliott –115. 2.00 units to win 1.74.
Grand Prix of Long Beach
Over in IndyCar, we don’t feel good enough about Kyle Kirkwood to take him to win, but we do like these odds against Álex Palou. Palou’s the better driver overall, but Andretti’s won four of the last six at Long Beach, with one of those wins coming from Kirkwood. With Kirkwood starting first and Palou third, and with another Andretti between them in Colton Herta, the advantage should be with Kirkwood.
Pick: Kyle Kirkwood to beat Álex Palou –115. 2.00 units to win 1.74.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –98.57 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 290 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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