It’s been a bad week so far. Let’s see if we can keep it going.
Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis
I think this line favors Loyola because of concerns about SLU’s rest. They use less bench than anyone else in the country.
We tend to think rest in conference tournaments is really overblown.
Pick: Saint Louis +2 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Akron vs. Toledo
These guys both shot well yesterday. Toledo doesn’t seem inclined to slow the pace down. Again, I tend to think the fatigue piece is overblown, both reactively and preemptively (i.e., “Akron will play slow to preserve their legs for tomorrow”). But Champ Week has been unkind to me, so take it for what it’s worth.
Pick: Over 162.5 (–120). 10.00 units to win 8.33.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –113.85 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 137 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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