I was told once that they call it Black Friday because it’s the day retailers’ books finally get into the black. That’s not going to happen for us. But we can still win some bets.
Mississippi at Mississippi State
It’s better to think of the median scenario than the average one. In the average scenario, Lane Kiffin’s potential departure matters a lot here. In the median one, it’s either not happening or it was decided a long time ago and isn’t a distraction.
Pick: Mississippi –7 (–115). 1.13 units to win 0.98.
Utah at Kansas
The thing about last week’s near-catastrophe for Utah is that we knew K-State had it in ‘em. There’s a good chance that was more K-State finally putting it together offensively than Utah completely disintegrating on defense.
Pick: Utah –10 (–115). 1.13 units to win 0.98.
Texas A&M at Texas
Texas A&M’s impressive, but they’ve had great schedule luck. I’m not sure they’re as good as Texas. And this game’s in Austin, not College Station.
Pick: Texas +3 (–110). 1.08 units to win 0.98.
Arizona at Arizona State
The Sam Leavitt injury happened a long time ago. Our model’s had time to catch up.
Pick: Arizona State +2 (–110). 1.08 units to win 0.98.
Chicago at Philadelphia
Don’t overthink it.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –7 (–113). 1.11 units to win 0.98.
San Francisco vs. Nevada
Nevada isn’t good or anything, but. Don’t think they’re bad as the consensus says they are. And I’m not sure you can ever trust the Dons.
Pick: Nevada +5 (–108). 1.06 units to win 0.98.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –539.59 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 971 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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