Got a win last night. I wouldn’t make too much of it, but we did get a win last night.
Michigan State at Wisconsin
This is a good spot for Wisconsin. But, markets are reflecting that. Instead, we’re going to play the always-dangerous matchup game and bet on Michigan State getting some points against this Wisconsin defense. We like Wisconsin’s shots to keep falling (better three-point percentage in conference play than against their relatively weak nonconference slate, which illustrates the randomness of that stat in these half-season samples), but this is more driven by a thought that MSU will get theirs.
Pick: Over 147.5 (–110). 4.60 units to win 4.18.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –577.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,068 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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