The Astros are playing the Yankees. There has to be value on someone, right?
Houston at New York (AL)
Neither team is clicking, but we think this tilts towards the Astros. Hunter Brown is clicking, there’s still a chance the Yankees rushed back Aaron Judge, and Cameron Schlittler hasn’t found it yet at the big-league level.
Pick: Houston to win –105. 0.57 units to win 0.54. Brown and Schlittler must start.
Kansas City at Minnesota
The Twins sold hard, but they’ve played fine since and Joe Ryan’s start the day after the deadline went well. It’s possible the emotional weight of all the trade talk has hit him in the days since, but we think this price is probably lower just because bettors aren’t ready to put their trust in the Twins. The Royals aren’t exactly cruising.
Pick: Minnesota to win –129. 0.70 units to win 0.54. Lugo and Ryan must start.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
The Rays won a series in Anaheim, and they might be fine. Even if they are, though, Luis Castillo’s still been formidable.
Pick: Seattle to win –118. 0.64 units to win 0.54. Rasmussen and Castillo must start.
Washington at San Francisco
Heat Index’s first choice tonight is the Giants, which is more a reflection of how poorly the Nationals have played since the All-Star Break (almost as badly as the Rockies).
Pick: San Francisco to win –160. 0.74 units to win 0.46. Irvin and Gage must start.
New York (NL) at Milwaukee
Heat Index’s second choice is the Brewers, which is about both teams. The Brewers are only third in Heat Index (a combination of wRC+ and FIP–), but the Mets are 26th. Subjectively, we’re encouraged by Kodai Senga’s control struggles since returning from the IL.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –137. 0.63 units to win 0.46. Senga and Woodruff must start.
World Series
On the futures side, we’re doubling up on the Yankees again. One angle to consider: The Yankees have one of the higher World Series:Playoff probability ratios in baseball. If they play well enough to make the playoffs, their likelihood of being a championship contender is higher than it is for, say, the Tigers, a team with fewer dimensions and a lower ceiling.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1300. 4.00 units to win 52.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –490.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 561 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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