Our futures are thriving. Our spot-based moneylines are mostly good but couldn’t save us from a sweep last night. Heat Index’s sophomore performance has started rockily. (Or is it Rockily?)
We persist.
Chicago (NL) at Toronto
Heat Index’s first choice today is the Blue Jays, whom it liked last night as well. Heat Index doesn’t account for individual pitchers, but if you’re looking for some justification, remember that Matthew Boyd’s already made more starts this season than he has in any year since 2019. That’s great, but it’s a red flag.
Pick: Toronto to win –103. 0.42 units to win 0.41. Boyd and Scherzer must start.
Atlanta at New York (NL)
Switching to spot-based, it’s slim pickings today, and we’re forcing this one a bit. But for as much as we’ve enjoyed betting against Bryce Elder this year, we do like that Kodai Senga has a 7.05 FIP since coming off the IL. It’s not just one bad start, either. In each of his last four outings, he’s walked at least three batters and allowed at least one home run. In none of the five post-IL appearances has he recorded a 16th out.
Pick: Atlanta to win +167. 0.40 units to win 0.67. Elder and Senga must start.
Arizona at Colorado
Back to Heat Index, its second choice is the Diamondbacks over the Rockies. Who’s driving that? The Rockies, of course. They’re very bad. That hasn’t changed.
Pick: Arizona to win –163. 0.67 units to win 0.41. Rodriguez and Blalock must start.
NLCS
One of the great things about baseball futures markets is that prices don’t update every day. This time of year, division markets usually adjust every morning, but pennant and World Series markets don’t.
In related news, the Padres won last night, not only moving into first place in the NL West but pulling within half a game of the Phillies for the second bye spot. We’re not saying it’ll happen, but it’s enough to make this a valuable price, and the Padres haven’t been one of our higher-upside options.
Pick: San Diego to win +650. 4.00 units to win 26.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –491.76 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 588 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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