Rollercoaster last night, but we came out ok. As a reminder: No more MLB futures until someone clinches a division. Cash flow is short. Thankfully, the Phillies and Tigers are both getting close.
Chicago (AL) at Cleveland
This is the spot-based play today. The Guardians are playing pretty well. Tanner Bibee’s pitching just fine. The White Sox have become pesky, but they’ve also played some teams at suspect times.
Pick: Cleveland to win –140. 0.36 units to win 0.26. Pérez and Bibee must start.
St. Louis at Milwaukee
Heat Index’s first choice tonight is the Brewers, who are 5th in wRC+ over the last three weeks and 6th in FIP. Contributing equally to the recency mismatch is the Cardinals, who are 29th in wRC+ and 23rd in FIP.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –182. 0.39 units to win 0.21. Pallante and Priester must start.
Anaheim at Seattle
Heat Index’s second choice is the Mariners, whom it’s liked a lot lately (again, partly thanks to schedule). These late-season win streaks by contenders are what we were trying to predict when we created Heat Index. Jury’s out on whether it’s working, but hopefully it can get us a win tonight.
Pick: Seattle to win –183. 0.39 units to win 0.21. Kikuchi and Castillo must start.
Kansas State at Arizona
Kansas State’s been terrible to start the year. They were bad in Ireland, came home and nearly lost to North Dakota, hosted Army and did lose to them, and now have to deal with a surprisingly strong Arizona team coming off a short week. That’s: Lingering travel fatigue, unexpected close game fatigue, post-service academy fatigue, and short-week fatigue, all thrown at a team for whom things are not going well. No FBS team has underperformed Movelor’s expectations more than Kansas State. Only two power conference teams have overperformed Movelor’s expectations more than Arizona. Movelor has Arizona favored here, but given all these ingredients, we’d normally expect the line to be even further towards the Cats.
Instead, the line likes Kansas State to win on the road.
Our track record is poor when it comes to betting against the spread in the early season. We got cocky last night and took a little shot, and I regret that. But man, it is hard to pass up Arizona when they’re getting two points. Too hard. Need to hope this is line is the product of a lot of recreational bettors, and/or that the market just hasn’t paid attention to Arizona yet.
Pick: Arizona +2 (–110). 0.12 units to win 0.11.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.76 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 727 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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