We’re back. We’re going to catch up on NFL futures today, and we have four plays for tonight: One in college basketball, two in the NFL, and the college football game.
Nebraska vs. New Mexico
This is in Kansas City. The crowd’s going to be behind Nebraska, and we’re not sure how much bettors have put that together. New Mexico’s solid and should get better the longer Eric Olen’s in Albuquerque. They’re not there yet. The Huskers haven’t been invincible, but they’re playing well.
Pick: Nebraska –8 (–112). 1.24 units to win 1.11.
Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State
Stephen F. Austin’s trying to clinch a conference title and get themselves a good seed in the FCS Playoffs tonight. They’re capable of covering this number, Movelor thinks they will cover this number, and we don’t see why they would choose not to cover this number.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin –37.5 (–115). 5.07 units to win 4.41.
Buffalo at Houston
Five and a half’s a lot of points for a road team on a Thursday night to cover, and similarly to what we saw with the Chiefs on Sunday, conventional wisdom gets plenty of things wrong. We do, though, think Josh Allen tends to run even more than people expect in bigger games. That’s not something we’ve researched, to be clear.
Pick: Houston +5.5 (–110). 1.21 units to win 1.10.
Pick: Josh Allen o33.5 rush yards (–130). 1.43 units to win 1.10.
NFC West
The value’s still there. They’re only a game and a half back.
Pick: San Francisco to win +900. 1.00 unit to win 9.00.
AFC North
The value’s here too. It isn’t pretty, but they do lead this division over halfway through the season.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +275. 1.00 unit to win 2.75.
NFC North
This is some portfolio maintenance. We put too much down on the Lions and Packers and don’t trust either enough to not cover our bases. Decent value, though.
Pick: Chicago to win +430. 3.00 units to win 12.90.
AFC
The Broncos are in a great position and we don’t have that much down on them. Elsewhere, someone’s going to get the 7-seed.
Pick: Denver to win +600. 4.00 units to win 24.00.
Pick: Jacksonville to win +2800. 1.00 unit to win 28.00.
Pick: Houston to win +5000. 1.00 unit to win 50.00.
NFC
The Panthers price is so funny for a team with a winning record. No, they probably won’t win it. But 170-to-1?
With the NFC North teams: We didn’t have anything down on either. The opportunity’s there.
Pick: Green Bay to win +850. 6.00 units to win 51.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
Pick: Chicago to win +4000. 1.00 unit to win 40.00.
Pick: Carolina to win +17000. 1.00 unit to win 170.00.
Super Bowl
A little more on the same teams here. The Super Bowl portion of our portfolio is small still. That’s good, since we’ve struggled to find chances to bet on favorites.
Pick: Denver to win +1500. 1.00 unit to win 15.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2800. 2.00 units to win 56.00.
Pick: Jacksonville to win +6000. 1.00 unit to win 60.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –528.68 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 921 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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