We’re up to 7–0–1 over the last three days, and our “spot”-based approach is 31–19 excluding postponed games. We’ve got a .620 win percentage against –118 average odds, which implies a 14.50% average return. We don’t think that kind of return is sustainable, but we aren’t going to cap our Kelly criterion p-value below 15%. We’ve sustained 15% for short stretches before, and the idea behind this approach—taking a small portion of our overall bankroll and going full Kelly on it—is to maximize short-term upside while minimizing the damage from crashes.
No futures again today, so we’ll do a set on Sunday as well as one tomorrow. Then we’ll be caught back up. Apologies if you were craving some Fourth of July futures.
New York (AL) at New York (NL)
The Mets may or may not have righted the ship, but they at least aren’t in freefall anymore. It’s hard to expect much out of Marcus Stroman right now, and the Yankees—though no strangers to dramatic reactions to skids—are dealing with a lot of noise.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –124. 11.99 units to win 9.67. Stroman and Hagenman must start.
Detroit at Cleveland
Also dealing with noise are the Guardians. We don’t know how Reese Olson will do coming off the IL, but while Slade Cecconi’s been solid and there’s at least a little suspicion around the Tigers keeping this up, the Tigers have reliably pulled it together this year when faced with losing streaks of their own. Losing this would match their season-long, which is three straight.
Pick: Detroit to win –130. 12.57 units to win 9.67. Olson and Cecconi must start.
Baltimore at Atlanta
Spencer Strider’s been better, but he isn’t fully himself. Charlie Morton, meanwhile, is a lesser self than Strider but has been himself on the aggregate over this season. The Braves and Orioles are both a mess, but the Orioles seem to have hit their low point and found a new normal. The same can’t be said for their hosts, who should be favored tonight but not at this price.
Pick: Baltimore to win +158. 6.12 units to win 9.67. Morton and Strider must start.
San Francisco at Sacramento
Finally, Justin Verlander. Is he good anymore? Not really. But the narrative’s gotten so focused on the “win” stat that it’s making more of his struggles than is justified.
Pick: San Francisco to win –102. 9.86 units to win 9.67. Verlander and Sears must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –394.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 446 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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