Miami, true to form, is good at winning and got it done last night. Unfortunately, “got it done” did not including covering the spread.
North Carolina at Duke
As head coach, Jon Scheyer is 5–3 against UNC outright despite being a favorite six or seven times. He’s yet to beat UNC by 18 or more. Maybe tonight is when the Caleb Wilson injury finally really catches up to the Tar Heels, but we’re banking on them finding a way to at least put a scare into Duke. That’s been UNC’s thing in the Hubert Davis era. Their one thing.
Pick: North Carolina +17.5 (–110). 4.71 units to win 4.28.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –567.41 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,094 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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