Tough Saturday of college football. Tough loss for our Blue Jays. We’re back, and we’re in the hole but we’ve got good futures portfolios waiting to pull us out.
We’ll do some big futures catchups over the next few days and weeks, but for today, it’s just college basketball and college football. Our oldest friends. For units, we’re setting aside enough units to get us through December on the futures front. Our Kelly criterion is based on what’s left. It’s small, but that’s what we need to do for the next few weeks.
Texas vs. Duke
This is a little goofy, but hear us out:
In each of Jon Scheyer’s first three years, Duke’s lost its first non-buy game. The Champions Classic in 2022 and 2024. The Arizona game in 2023.
Texas isn’t any of those teams. There’s a good chance Texas is a bubble team this year. The talent isn’t great. Sean Miller is hard to trust.
But…
Eyeballing it, this moneyline is the kind of line you get on a 10-point spread in February. This is November. Uncertainty is higher. I’m not sure that’s priced in. Kenpom only has Duke as an 8-point favorite, but that correlates to a 75% win probability in Pomeroy’s model. Two points might be worth another six percentage points of win probability (and indeed, there’s a 10-point favorite with an 81% kenpom win probability tonight), but again, the underdog’s moneyline price should be higher per point spread earlier in the season. It’s like a bowl game.
Pick: Texas to win +431. 2.19 units to win 9.44.
Miami (OH) at Ohio
On the MACtion side…we like Ohio. They’re probably the best team in this conference. They have a chance to get a little closer to controlling their fate. Movelor has the line at six, and Movelor’s been right on these teams all year (both are 4–4 against Movelor’s spread and within 2.5 points of Movelor’s preseason rating). Give us Ohio.
Pick: Ohio –3 (+100). 3.37 units to win 3.37.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –470.60 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 876 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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