Back to winning yesterday. Though we really need to do something about the Dodgers using these openers.
Including our three starting pitcher scratches as wins (two were openers, one was the Phillies pulling Mick Abel after a rain delay, none of the three actually changed odds or would’ve changed our pick—we swear!), our “spot” approach is now 24–18 against average odds of –119. But. It’s a lot stronger on Tuesdays and Sundays, when we halve our options using the winning streak/losing streak approach we’ve talked about before. So, we’re going to start increasing our unit a medium amount on Tuesday and Sundays relative to what it would otherwise be, and we’re going to start decreasing our unit a small amount the other five days of the week. Proportionally, it evens out.
Now. To business.
Sacramento at Tampa Bay
Jacob Lopez was great on Wednesday in Detroit, and we appreciated that, because we bet Jacob Lopez. Jacob Lopez has been great three starts in a row now, with a 1.98 FIP across 19 innings against the Royals, Astros, and Tigers—not a bad set of lineups. Drew Rasmussen does not have a 1.98 FIP over his last three starts. But. Drew Rasmussen does have a 3.11 FIP over the last six years, which is the span of his career. He’s underappreciated, and he’s pitching in front of a relatively fresh bullpen tonight in Florida. The Rays should take care of business.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –166. 4.12 units to win 2.48. Lopez and Rasmussen must start.
NLCS
Yes, it came against the Rockies, but over the weekend, Quinn Priester struck out eleven across seven scoreless innings. Between him and Jacob Misiorowski, the youth upside is there. Between Freddy Peralta and the probably eventually returning Brandon Woodruff, the reliability should be there. The inclusion of Jose Quintana in Brewers postseason hype has raised eyebrows, but you don’t need to include Quintana. The setup is there, and it all feels very Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2300. 2.00 units to win 46.00.
World Series
Elsewhere, we need more on the Astros. They’re the best team in the AL West again, and they can hang with anyone in the American League. Markets haven’t fully figured this out yet, but they will.
Pick: Houston to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –418.03 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 437 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
