Good week so far. Leaning in.
Michigan at Michigan State
We have plenty of respect for Dusty May and his team, but the market seems like it’s disrespecting Michigan State here. Maybe it’s because Michigan just got a big win and MSU just looked shaky against Rutgers. Whatever the case, we’re chasing it.
Pick: Michigan State to win +100. 3.20 units to win 3.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –596.08 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,052 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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