Another loss last night, to cap a 1–7 week.
Back into the fray.
Mississippi at Texas
Baylor at Iowa State
Florida State at Notre Dame
Sticking with a very basic approach here: Trusting the market relative to kenpom, but deferring to home teams.
Pick: Texas –9.5 (–118). 3.49 units to win 2.96.
Pick: Under 152.5 (–115). 3.40 units to win 2.96.
Pick: Over 153 (–110). 3.25 units to win 2.95.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –620.19 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,061 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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