We were right about Wisconsin last night. We were very wrong about Texas A&M.
Nebraska @ Penn State
I don’t know if Penn State has quit or not, having lost seven straight, eleven of twelve, and Puff Johnson. I do know that they’ve underplayed expectations five games in a row now, while Nebraska’s taken care of business in every game they’ve played over the last 27 days. Nebraska hasn’t been flawless during that stretch, but they have a good enough thing going that we like them here, especially with three road wins in their last six games.
Pick: Nebraska –1 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Cincinnati @ West Virginia
This was at 3.5 points earlier today, and I’m a little worried there’s a West Virginia injury I don’t know about. The arguments I’m seeing in Cincinnati’s favor are that Jizzle James is hot, that West Virginia’s been losing a lot, and that Jizzle James is hot.
I like Jizzle James, but four good games in a row doesn’t leave me thinking he’s suddenly flipped a switch. He’s shot 13-for-23 from deep over those games. He’s not going to sustain that much longer.
As for West Virginia: Their kenpom rating has hardly moved since mid-December. They’re a fairly known quantity post-Tucker DeVries. Their last game against Cincinnati—the one where they beat the Bearcats by 13 on the road—happened this month.
I understand the Cincinnati optimism, and I do understand some of the West Virginia pessimism, but pulling this three points away from the kenpom line feels overly aggressive. You might want to keep an eye out for an injury report.
Pick: West Virginia –2.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –80.66 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 87 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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