No luck yesterday on the Brewers, so we’re now 9–9 on this “spot” approach and we’d need to be 10–8 to be outperforming the odds. Lots more today, plus our weekday futures.
Atlanta at New York (NL)
We’ve been tempted a lot of times to believe the Braves are back. We don’t want to go that far again. If you’d like to get selective with it, you can point out they’re 36–34 since their season-opening seven-game losing streak in California, but the stronger argument is probably that they have the easiest schedule remaining out of any NL East team. Basically, they’re done playing the Dodgers.
Instead of focusing on that, let’s look at Spencer Strider and Frankie Montas.
Strider’s now got a 3.61 FIP since returning from the IL, not far off what you’d expect from the guy. That includes the three-homer game against the Diamondbacks, and the failures to escape the fifth inning against both the Nationals and the Phillies. His last two starts have been great—21 K’s, 2 BB’s, 1 ER over 12 innings of work—but you don’t need to be that selective with it. You can include the three rough outings and feel like Spencer Strider is still some semblance of Spencer Strider.
Montas, meanwhile, is making his season debut after a lat injury, and the guy who posted a 4.71 FIP (and 4.71 xERA) last year has allowed 25 runs in fewer than 20 innings in his rehab appearances. Eight home runs. Ten walks. Only twelve strikeouts. All against minor leaguers. It’s bad enough that the Mets are openly addressing it, saying things like (I’m paraphrasing here), “It only happens in games.”
Unfortunately for Montas, this is a game. We’ve got plenty of trepidation about a sub-.500 team on the road against a World Series contender. Hopefully, others are feeling the same way and creating a little value for us.
Pick: Atlanta to win –140. 1.44 units to win 1.03. Strider and Montas must start.
Seattle at Minnesota
Is Luis Castillo ok? The Mariners’ starter tonight has allowed seven home runs across his last three starts.
We’re not sure he is. It’s the kind of thing that makes you look for pitch-tipping, which is the kind of thing that could probably really get in a pitcher’s head. Add in that Castillo’s strikeouts are down almost 25% from where they sat in 2022 and 2023, and it’s also possible the guy’s just getting old.
At the end of the day, we still like the Mariners here. Chris Paddack hasn’t replicated what he did against them his last time out, and only the Rays have hit better than Seattle in June, while the streaky Twins currently appear to be doing the bad version of being streaky.
Pick: Seattle to win –104. 1.07 units to win 1.03. Castillo and Paddack must start.
Arizona at Chicago (AL)
Corbin Carroll’s going on the IL and there’s a chance this game gets delayed or disrupted by storms. Caution on the Diamondbacks is understandable. But Carroll’s just one player, that weather might hold, and we’re getting a decent team at only –120 against the White Sox’ bullpen. That’s an opportunity.
Pick: Arizona to win –120. 1.23 units to win 1.03. Nelson and Leasure must start.
Chicago (NL) at St. Louis
Do we believe in Michael McGreevy’s small sample? Not at all. It shouldn’t stand. But the Cubs have gotten away with a terrible on-paper pitching staff all season, and that seems to be catching up to them as the weather gets warm. Jameson Taillon’s a gamer, and the Cubs’ bats could end McGreevy’s honeymoon with a bang, but St. Louis is in the better position here.
Pick: St. Louis to win –105. 1.08 units to win 1.03. Taillon and McGreevy must start.
Philadelphia at Houston
The Astros haven’t lost a series since the middle of May, but we’re getting Ranger Suárez and a very good Phillies team as a moderate underdog here. They shouldn’t be favored, but they can’t be counted out at this degree. (Great game, great series.)
Pick: Philadelphia to win +135. 0.76 units to win 1.03. Suárez and Valdez must start.
Los Angeles at Colorado
Since the start of 2023, the Dodgers are 23–6 against the Rockies. This isn’t the ideal matchup, but the Dodgers bully these guys, just as you’d expect them to. Tonight shouldn’t be any different.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –258. 2.65 units to win 1.03. Wrobleski and Márquez must start.
World Series
The Mariners have done big things these last few days, and markets haven’t really moved. The big things don’t even need to continue to have added some value.
Pick: Seattle to win +3000. 2.00 units to win 60.00.
NLCS
And on the higher-probability side, another Mets loss strengthens the Phillies that much more.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –377.34 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 411 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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