For those wondering if we’d follow up Saturday’s fade of Texas A&M with another…
We’re going to skip it.
We don’t know how much the potential Denver Jones absence is worth in the markets, so we can’t really gauge whether the markets are favoring Auburn or A&M relative to kenpom.
What we’re on instead…
Baylor at TCU
Baylor’s better than TCU. Baylor has more to play for. But neither of those things breaks dramatically in Baylor’s favor. If it matters, Baylor’s struggled lately, too, while TCU’s righted the ship a little bit. It seems like markets are banking on Baylor to bounce back. I don’t think that’s guaranteed.
Pick: TCU +4 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Memphis at UTSA
Here, I’m puzzled. This is the second game in a row Memphis has come in a few points below kenpom’s number without an obvious explanation. Is someone banged up who I’m missing? Is this backlash against the AP Poll? Memphis might not be that good, but they should be better than this.
Bonus points for being available at –106. It’s at –115 in a lot of places, so –106 feels like it could be a steal.
Pick: Memphis –8.5 (–106). 10.00 units to win 9.43.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –59.45 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 116 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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