As promised, the units are bigger again. Thank you to the Dodgers for making that quick.
No MLB futures today—we’re still only seeing value on the Mariners, and we have plenty of that in our portfolio already. College football it is, and college football only.
Arizona at Houston
Baylor at TCU
Oklahoma at South Carolina
Memphis at UAB
Texas at Kentucky
Tennessee at Alabama
We’re following Movelor on all of these. More details:
- Arizona’s got an early kick, and wide receiver injuries are usually overblown.
- The injury report broke well for TCU’s line and the spread didn’t move? Maybe I missed something, but that’s my impression of what happened.
- South Carolina is a better football team than Oklahoma and John Mateer is still trying to play hurt.
- Interim coaches aren’t worth eight points. UCLA and UAB are different teams.
- The Cole Hutson injury is concerning for Texas, but Texas is still pretty undervalued by the narrative.
- The Alabama line is huge, but probably not huge enough. We just haven’t seen that much from Tennessee this year. They should have beaten a flawed Georgia team in Knoxville. That’s their only accomplishment so far. We like the Vols, but we think Bama gets up for this one, even if they’re understandably tired.
Pick: Houston +1.5 (–110). 2.93 units to win 2.66.
Pick: TCU –3.5 (–102). 2.72 units to win 2.67.
Pick: South Carolina +4.5 (–115). 3.06 units to win 2.66.
Pick: Memphis –21.5 (–110). 2.93 units to win 2.66.
Pick: Texas –12.5 (–110). 2.93 units to win 2.66.
Pick: Alabama –9 (–115). 3.06 units to win 2.66.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –492.42 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 840 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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