For complicated reasons I’d rather not disclose—reasons which involve every dollar I’ve ever lost betting on college basketball—we measure our weeks as Wednesday to Tuesday around here. We went 9–5 this past week. The one before that, we went 8–6. The one before that, we were 7–7. Before that? 9–5. February was a good month. But we’ve got a lot of March ahead of us.
Missouri at Oklahoma
We can get here from either side.
On Mizzou: This team opened the season with NIT expectations. They’ve had a remarkable run, and they are legitimately a good team, but would it be that shocking to see them close the regular season 1–4 with losses to three bubble teams?
On Oklahoma: The Sooners have lost a lot of SEC games. But they’ve been close in a lot of those, and they haven’t stopped playing competitive basketball. We’re suspicious that they’re going to win tonight, but we don’t even necessarily need that. A cover is enough.
Pick: Oklahoma +5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Tennessee at Mississippi
This is a classic letdown game for Tennessee, who doesn’t have all that much to play for at the moment and just won in really fun fashion against Alabama.
At the same time, though, Mississippi’s underwhelmed in five or six of their last six games, depending who you ask. Meanwhile, Chris Beard continues to get attention for the Indiana job, where Indiana is definitely not twiddling its fingers waiting for everybody else to wrap things up. We’ve mentioned Iowa State, Texas A&M, and Mississippi as teams whose late-season slides bear watching. There are others as well, but those are three who have generally played badly the last few weeks while their coaches get coverage in Bloomington. A&M got a big win last night, and maybe Mississippi does that tonight. If not for the coaching rumors, I think that’d be the thing to expect. But communications are happening. Presumably indirectly at this stage, but they’re happening.
Pick: Tennessee –2.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –60.36 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 118 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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