I’m afraid we’re going to be a little boring and hateable today.
Washington at Houston
MacKenzie Gore’s great. He’s also reportedly been the topic of somewhat serious trade talks, and his last two starts have (possibly coincidentally, possibly not coincidentally) gone poorly. Ryan Gusto’s mediocre. But he has a good team around him, banged up though the Astros may be. These guys do have a record only 1.5 games worse than the best in the AL.
Pick: Houston to win –113. 1.11 units to win 0.98. Gore and Gusto must start.
Tampa Bay at New York (AL)
In the Bronx, the Yankees got a little wind in their sails with a win last night while the Orioles swept a doubleheader from the Blue Jays. Will Warren hasn’t been spectacular, but he doesn’t get enough credit for his respectable underlying stats. We’ve fought a lot of battles against Zack Littell this year, but we’re going to keep fighting them. He allows the second-most home runs in the majors (per inning). His FIP is 1.20 runs worse than his ERA. His xERA is 0.85 runs worse than his ERA. Those are the numbrers that come crashing down, especially at Yankee Stadium.
There’s a chance for a rain delay here, which does worry us but also gives the Rays a potential additional hour to trade away a third of their lineup.
Pick: New York to win –126. 1.24 units to win 0.98. Littell and Warren must start.
NLCS
On the futures front, we return to an old standby. It’s easy to bet on teams whose front offices we can expect to be active today and tomorrow.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
AL West
Which is part of what makes Jerry Dipoto so easy to like.
Pick: Seattle to win +275. 2.00 units to win 5.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –486.23 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 534 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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