This isn’t why we’re betting two night games tonight, but one of the tough things about betting a day game and then a night game, if you’re only betting two games, is feeling really good about yourself if you win the first only to then finish a little below even on the day. We thought all afternoon yesterday that we were getting a sweep. Alas.
Two on the later side of primetime:
Colorado State vs. Nevada
The market’s evidently enthusiastic about Colorado State here, and it’s easy to understand why. The Rams have won seven in a row and Nique Clifford’s coming off a 36-point game.
Just because it’s easy to understand, though, does not mean the market is correct. Colorado State has shown us a lot. They haven’t shown us enough to make this spread make sense.
Nevada’s a quiet but consistent team, and while they haven’t beaten anyone better than themselves since November, they don’t have to win to cover this number. Give us a close effort, Wolf Pack.
Pick: Nevada +5 (–107). 10.00 units to win 9.35.
UConn vs. Villanova
We’ve bet a lot of Big East overs lately, and while I don’t think we have a winning record on them, I do think our point differential is positive. We just saw a great shooting effort at the Garden in the afternoon session. Give us another one in the nightcap.
Pick: Over 134 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –93.85 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 135 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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