With yesterday’s win, we’re back to a –2% average ROI on the calendar year. That isn’t even or profitable, but we continue to get within shouting distance.
Seattle at Cincinnati
This one’s unusual for us. Our process consists of checking what FanGraphs’s single-game probabilities indicate are positive-EV options, then checking for red flags: Would we be betting on a pitcher who’s underperformed FanGraphs’s expectations? Would we be betting against a pitcher who’s overperformed those expectations? Which side does bullpen fatigue favor? How about injuries? Is there any weather to worry about?
Going through that process today left us with nothing. But. If we allow ourselves to consider negative-EV options, we find that the Reds only offer an EV of –2.2%, and the way we measure bullpen fatigues, we have relief pitching about 1.1 WAR further towards Cincinnati than FanGraphs does. Is this enough to move Cincinnati from a 54.9% win probability (FanGraphs’s prediction) to 56.2%, which is the number necessary to make these odds positive-EV? Not quite. If my math’s correct, that only moves them to 55.6% or so.
Still, we’re going with the Reds. We don’t have a better option, and if we do allow ourselves to hope a little, Brady Singer’s outperformed his projections so far by a wide margin. He’s got a 2.61 xERA and a 2.72 FIP. We trust FanGraphs’s 4.18 rest-of-season FIP projection, but is it possible Singer’s pitching especially well right now? It’s at least possible enough to get us that last six tenths of a percentage point. Similarly, we don’t hate betting against a West Coast team at 9:40 AM Pacific Time, even if the Mariners have been in Ohio long enough that their bodies should be fully adjusted.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –128. 15.00 units to win 11.72. Hancock and Singer must start.
AL East
We’re doubling up on this one. Our priorities with these futures start with these:
- Positive-EV teams we haven’t bet at all.
- Positive-EV teams we’ve only bet in the regular season (if the value’s in the postseason) or postseason (if the value’s in the regular season).
- Positive-EV teams who aren’t a profitable regular season/postseason option.
Nobody besides the Yankees fits any of the three categories.
So, we’re in on New York at + odds. Our portfolio will change a lot between now and September, but given what we’ve bet so far, we’d profit in the AL East market if any of the Yankees, Rays, or Blue Jays won it. FanGraphs puts the likelihood of that happening around 70%.
For those curious, profit probability is going to be a bigger deal to us this year. We do want to maximize value, but the point of doing a portfolio is to balance that value maximization with some stability. We can’t leave ourselves exposed to Dodgers over Yankees (or a similar scenario) like we did last year. If we’re going to do portfolios, we need to keep a tight eye on every scenario and not leave ourselves in a position where there could be a 25% chance of disaster. (That was our disaster probability entering last year’s World Series.)
Pick: New York (AL) to win +130. 4.00 units to win 5.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –84.49 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –2% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 297 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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