Terrible performance from us yesterday, but in an effort to delude ourselves into continuing the process, we’re 29–23 on NIT and NCAA Tournament picks so far.
We’re changing the approach to units today. Rather than four 15-unit picks and the rest at five units, we’re making every pick ten units. We were doing the 15-unit picks because we didn’t think we actually should be betting every game. Overall, though, a blanket approach has worked better than trying to identify more isolated winners.
Moving on to the games, using our Conferences vs. Kenpom approach, kenpom and Nate Silver’s models, and our tracking of scoring so far.
Dayton at Chattanooga
Dayton’s going on the road here for an early tip. They’re the better team, but the NIT motivation question breaks in Chattanooga’s favor. Dayton’s been fickle this year, for whatever that’s worth. And at the core of all of that, kenpom only has the line at 1.
Had the NIT overs not really calmed down on Wednesday (they were 13.3 points over the kenpom number on Tuesday, but only 0.3 points over on Wednesday with an extra day of game prep), we’d probably say this is too close to call and shift our attention to the over. Instead, we think this is the best play.
Pick: Chattanooga +2 (–104). 10.00 units to win 9.62.
Purdue vs. McNeese
On one side, kenpom and Silver both narrowly favor McNeese against the spread. On the other, NCAA Tournament totals have been 2.6 points lower per game than the kenpom number, and that’s with First Four numbers that were through the roof and probably not as representative as what we saw the last two days. We’d imagine Purdue’s prepared well for McNeese. We think Purdue will control the tempo. In a game where we don’t love any of the available options, we’ll take the one we dislike the least, which is the under.
Pick: Under 142.5 (–107). 10.00 units to win 9.35.
Bradley at George Mason
Going back to the NIT, we like the Patriots here. Kenpom doesn’t lean hard in their favor, and we have concerns kenpom could be overrating the A-10 and underrating the MVC, but Bradley’s a little shorthanded and George Mason’s had fewer distractions this last week.
Pick: George Mason –5.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
St. John’s vs. Arkansas
This total seems to be getting out of control, and if I had to guess, that’s public momentum reflecting the public interest in this game.
Pick: Under 146.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Texas A&M vs. Michigan
This line is even more surprising, given everything we’ve seen the last few days. It’s concerning, and it’d be even more concerning if this wasn’t such a public-heavy time of year for bets. We’ll trust the fundamentals—it’s nice to not even worry about the over/underrated SEC/Big Ten piece—but this is odd.
Pick: Michigan +3 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Texas Tech vs. Drake
Chance McMillian is either out or limited, and this was already poised to be a low-scoring game. We have doubts about Drake getting second chances against Tech, and the fundamentals—combined with a 2.6-point adjustment to reflect those totals so far—favor the under anyway.
Pick: Under 127 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Auburn vs. Creighton
This is a hard game for finding value, but for whatever it’s worth, I do think recency bias favors the over after what Creighton did on Thursday.
Pick: Under 150.5 (–108). 10.00 units to win 9.26.
Wisconsin vs. BYU
There are some altitude concerns around Wisconsin, though they do deserve to be the favorite. I don’t think we know much about altitude in college basketball. Or if we do, we don’t know it in any widespread manner. We’ll ride with our subtract–2.6–points approach.
Pick: Under 155 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Houston vs. Gonzaga
Very hard to find an angle on this, especially with Santa Clara and San Francisco boosting suspicions the WCC could be somehow underrated (implying Gonzaga’s a top-five team). Our numbers narrowly favor the under.
Pick: Under 139.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Tennessee vs. UCLA
We were tempted by a lot of spreads today, but in at least the NCAA Tournament, it really seems like the under is mostly the move.
-Says the –7% bettor across 2025.
Pick: Under 130 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
NIT
For our daily future: This price is still available, and this price is still really, really good. It’s a longshot, but nothing close to 80-to-1.
Pick: Chattanooga to win +8000. 1.00 unit to win 80.00.
Chinese Grand Prix
Last, for tonight’s F1: Polesitters are 10–7 all-time in the Chinese Grand Prix, and while they only went 11–13 in last year’s races, we think the balance is enough to favor Piastri, especially with no flukiness to him qualifying first.
Pick: Oscar Piastri to win –110. 1.00 unit to win 0.91.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –183.29 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 199 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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