Another loss last night. Last week’s hot streak feels a long way away.
Penn State at Michigan
Penn State is known for playing horrible defense, but in their defense’s defense: At some point, strong opponent shooting percentages (especially from three and the free throw line) are bad luck. Coming off a win, the quit question isn’t as loud. Meanwhile, Michigan gets a break between an Indiana–Ohio State–Nebraska–Michigan State swing and a trip to Columbus on Sunday. Smells like a letdown opportunity.
Pick: Under 162.5 (–117). 3.54 units to win 3.03.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –613.51 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,059 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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