Good stuff last night. Been a good few nights. Be wary.
Michigan at Illinois
The bait here is that while Michigan has a hyper-efficient offense which plays fast and Illinois has an even more efficient offense…Illinois likes to slow it down. Maybe that’s hard to do in an environment as amped as the one in Champaign this evening, but you have to imagine Brad Underwood’s staff is aware of that risk.
Pick: Under 159.5 (–110). 4.74 units to win 4.31.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –565.28 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,086 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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